South African biodiversity facing technological and social challenges by 2030

In South Africa, nature conservation must now anticipate upcoming disruptions rather than simply reacting to crises. A team of specialists has identified ten major issues that could transform biodiversity conservation over the next five to ten years. These challenges reveal an urgent need for adaptive governance systems, cross-sector collaboration, and heightened vigilance against new technologies.

Shale gas extraction without water has resurfaced as a threat to the arid ecosystems of the Great Karoo. Although gas reserves were overestimated in the past, new techniques now allow the exploitation of smaller deposits. This activity risks fragmenting habitats, polluting aquifers, and disrupting already fragile areas. Meanwhile, the transition to green energy, such as green hydrogen or the mining of critical minerals, could increase pressure on sensitive regions. These projects, often located in arid zones, threaten ecosystems that are difficult to restore.

Artificial intelligence is emerging as a powerful tool for monitoring wildlife and flora. Applications already enable the identification of species from photos or audio recordings, helping to combat poaching and human-wildlife conflicts. However, these technologies come with risks. Misidentification errors, biases in training data, and a lack of expertise to validate results could distort conservation strategies. The uncritical use of AI in environmental impact studies or scientific reports could also lead to erroneous conclusions, lacking the nuance of local knowledge.

Energy and communication infrastructures are proliferating, often with overlooked consequences. Electricity pylons and telecom poles, for example, provide nesting sites for predators like the fiscal shrike, facilitating their expansion at the expense of other species. These installations, combined with the abandonment of old infrastructures, are transforming landscapes into sources of visual and ecological pollution.

The green water cycle, essential for water security, is being disrupted by the loss of natural vegetation. This water, stored in soils and plants, contributes to nearly half of the country’s precipitation. Its degradation, caused by land conversion and habitat loss, directly threatens water resources. Yet, its protection remains largely unaddressed in management policies, even though it also depends on neighboring ecosystems such as those in Botswana or Zimbabwe.

The regulation of pesticides is becoming an increasing problem. Outdated legislation and a lack of oversight are fostering pest resistance and the accumulation of toxic substances, even in protected areas. Nearly two-thirds of the insecticides used locally are banned in Europe. With climate change, the use of these products is expected to rise, worsening their impact on soils, waterways, and biodiversity.

Legal disputes are becoming a lever for environmental defense. Recent cases have succeeded in blocking mining projects or strengthening the status of protected areas. This trend is likely to grow, providing a means to compel governments and companies to honor their commitments. However, access to justice remains unequal, limiting its effectiveness for the least resourced communities.

Finally, access to knowledge about biodiversity is hindered by excessive regulations. Although intended to protect resources or regulate research, these rules sometimes impede essential conservation studies. Without reliable data, political decisions and field actions lose relevance.

These issues illustrate the complexity of the challenges ahead. Most cannot be solved by science alone. They require integrated approaches, bringing together researchers, policymakers, economic actors, and civil societies. South Africa, with its rich biodiversity and deep social inequalities, embodies the tensions between development and preservation. Solutions will need to reconcile technological innovation, regulatory reforms, and citizen participation to ensure a sustainable future for its ecosystems.

Credits and Attributions

Primary Source

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-026-02365-3

Title: A 2026 horizon scan for biodiversity conservation in South Africa

Journal: Ambio

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Authors: Colleen L. Seymour; Krystal A. Tolley; Tsungai Zengeya; Dian Spear; Jeran A. Cloete; Anisha Dayaram; Jessica M. da Silva; Graham J. Alexander; Kate Handley; Grant S. Joseph; Lavhelesani D. Simba; Kate Snaddon; Graham P. von Maltitz; Peter J. Carrick