Does Global Warming Multiply the Risks of Extreme Wildfires in Australia?

Australia, particularly its southeastern eucalyptus forests, could experience a significant increase in weather conditions conducive to large-scale fires. According to recent climate projections, extreme fire events—measured by an index combining temperature, humidity, wind, and drought—could become two to four times more frequent with global warming of 3°C. These forests, already vulnerable due to their proximity to populated areas and high flammability, have been the site of major disasters, such as the Black Summer fires of 2019-2020, which burned more than a fifth of temperate forests and caused dozens of fatalities.

Researchers analyzed the evolution of these risks using refined climate models capable of more accurately representing regional specifics. The results show that extreme events, once rare, could occur much more frequently, particularly in Tasmania, where their likelihood could quadruple. These changes are explained by rising maximum temperatures, decreased humidity, and stronger winds—factors that worsen soil dryness and promote the spread of fires.

The high-risk seasons are also lengthening, with a notable increase in very high-danger days starting in spring and lasting until autumn in some regions. Eucalyptus forests, which cover vast densely populated areas, are particularly exposed. In Tasmania, for example, fires could not only become more frequent but also more intense, threatening unique and fragile ecosystems.

These transformations reflect a global trend: climate warming is intensifying conditions conducive to wildfires, not only in Australia but also in other regions of the world such as North America and Europe. The projections highlight the urgency of adapting fire prevention and management strategies, as fire seasons extend and the most destructive episodes risk multiplying. The hardest-hit areas will be those where vegetation, already adapted to fire, could become even more flammable due to higher temperatures and more irregular precipitation.

Scientists emphasize the need to better understand these regional dynamics to protect both populations and irreplaceable ecosystems, some of which could shift toward drier and more flammable states. Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain crucial to limiting the scale of these changes, but local communities will also need to prepare for longer and more intense fire seasons.

Credits and Attributions

Primary Source

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00193-9

Title: Substantial increases in the likelihood of extreme fire weather events for fire-prone ecosystems in Australia

Journal: npj Natural Hazards

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Authors: Ryan McGloin; Ralph Trancoso; Jozef Syktus; Rohan Eccles; Nathan Toombs; Andrew Dowdy